Ready For Retirement
Ready For Retirement
How Soon Before Retirement Should You Adjust Your Portfolio?
In today’s episode of Ready for Retirement episode James covers when to adjust your portfolio as retirement nears—a crucial step for balancing growth and security. If adjustments happen too late, market downturns could delay your plans; if too early, you might miss out on potential growth.
The focus is on reallocating stocks to more stable investments like bonds as you approach the time you’ll need to start drawing from your portfolio. Historical data shows that while the stock market grows over the long term, short-term volatility can be risky close to retirement. Timing this transition, often starting about 10 years before needing funds, provides a smoother adjustment and reduces risk.
Besides financial factors, psychological comfort with market swings also matters. Striking the right balance helps ensure your retirement funds last while maintaining your peace of mind.
Questions answered:
1. When should I start adjusting my investment portfolio as I approach retirement?
2. How can I balance growth potential with stability in my retirement portfolio to minimize risks and ensure financial security?
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Protect against stock market decline
2:22 - Investment fundamentals and market trends
6:12 - When will you need the funds?
8:06 - Risk capacity
10:55 - Consider dividends and interest from bonds
14:20 - Use bonds for a specific purpose
17:07 - Risk tolerance
20:59 - 5-10 years before retirement
24:36 - Goal: minimize risk and regret
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On today's episode of Ready for Retirement, we're going to discuss how soon, before retiring, you should begin to adjust your portfolio Now. This is one of the most important things you can know about retirement planning, because if you don't do this soon enough, or in other words, if you do it too late, your desired retirement date could be wiped out, even if just temporarily, by a major market downturn. On the other hand, if you begin to adjust your portfolio too soon, you could miss out on substantial growth in your portfolio, which will then impact your ability to maximize retirement income and live out your ideal retirement. This is why, to state the obvious, it is crucial that you understand when you should begin making adjustments to your portfolio and to take an even bigger step back. What do I mean by adjustments to your portfolio? I mean when should you start to allocate the amount of growth investments to stable investments, or growth investments to conservative investments, typically thought of as your mix of stocks to bonds? So that's exactly what we're going to be discussing on today's episode.
Speaker 1:This is another episode of Ready for Retirement. I'm your host, james Canole, and I'm here to teach you how to get the most out of life with your money. And now on to the episode. Here's really what this comes down to. Really, what this comes down to isn't how soon should I begin adjusting my portfolio, it's how do I protect myself against a stock market decline? Now, that might seem obvious, but when we state it this way, it's a little bit easier to quantify what that adjustment should look like. And the reason for that is because, with the stock market, we have no idea what's going to happen going forward. But we at least have several decades, 100 years of experience to help us understand how the market works and what typical recovery timeframes look like. So, as you're listening to this, just to really paint the picture, if you're in your 30s, you're probably not too worried about decline for your long-term investments. If your 401k balance goes down, if your Roth IRA balance goes down, you maybe don't like it, you almost certainly don't like it but you're not too worried about your ability to retire. Now contrast that to if you're 60 years old and let's say that all of your money is in the stock market. Now you are very worried about the ability to retire, assuming your retirement is coming up in the not too distant future. So you can start to see how, at one point, you shouldn't be at all concerned. In fact, if you're in your 30s, you should invite a market downturn, because that means you get to continue buying great companies at a lower price. But if you're in retirement or near retirement, you can start to see how, of course, that's not going to be as appetizing, because that's money that you're going to need, sooner rather than later, to live on in retirement.
Speaker 1:So what we're going to do is we're going to look at statistics just to give you some perspective on how markets typically work, and then we're going to take a look at a practical way of working around this, a practical way that you can implement in your portfolio to help protect yourself against a market decline in retirement. So let's start with the fundamentals. We invest in stocks because we're investing in real companies with real earnings. You're not just sticking your money into something, seeing numbers go up and down on a screen and hoping for the best long term. What you are actually doing literally doing is you're buying ownership in a company. Now that company has earnings, it has profits, it has revenues, and those are things that you then participate in as a shareholder. You don't just buy one stock or one company. Ideally, you're purchasing hundreds or even thousands of companies, because if you diversify well and if you own a lot of great companies, you can build a lot of wealth over time.
Speaker 1:In doing that, the downside stocks don't always go up. Historically, the S&P 500, so measure the 500 biggest companies in America it's averaged about 10% per year over time. Now, to state the obvious, if we knew that every single year we were going to get exactly 10%, we probably wouldn't own anything other than that. Sure, maybe some other asset classes actually have a better long-term return. But if you could guarantee 10% per year, most of you are going to be all over that. Who wouldn't want that? The downside, again to state the obvious, is stocks don't always go up. If they only went up, we wouldn't own other things like bonds or cash or other conservative investments. We would only own stocks. But because stocks on average one out of every four years have a down year, have a bear market, that's why we start to own other things. So let's look at that frequency as a starting point.
Speaker 1:How frequently do stocks go down and how frequently do stocks go up? Well, if we're looking at the S&P 500, and we're looking at the frequency of positive returns over the last 90 years and we're looking at the frequency of positive returns over the last 90 years. It's really easy to get data around this. On a daily basis, about 53% of the time the S&P 500 goes up, meaning tomorrow assuming tomorrow is a market trading day. If you want to bet what the market's going to do tomorrow, it's basically a coin flip, a slightly more likely to be up than down. But 53% of the time the market is positive on a daily basis and 47% of the time it's negative. So not much better than a coin flip. If you're staking your retirement on a coin flip, that's a bad deal. So the stock market is very risky in the short term. You're equally as likely to lose money on a daily basis as you are to gain money.
Speaker 1:Now, what if we extend that? What if we don't look at daily returns but we look at monthly returns? Well, on a monthly basis, 63% of the time the S&P 500 has been positive over the last 90 plus years, which means the remaining 37% of the time it's been negative. So it's almost a two thirds one thirds ratio. At that point, what about annually? On an annual basis, 73% of the time the S&P 500 has a positive outcome. The other 27% of the time it has a negative outcome. So that was my statistic earlier One out of every four years.
Speaker 1:The market goes down on a calendar year basis, but as we begin to extend that even further over five-year rolling time periods, 88% of the time the S&P 500 has a positive outcome. Overall 10-year rolling time periods the S&P 500 is positive 94% of the time. In over 20 20 year rolling time periods, there's never been an instance in the last 90 plus years that the S&P 500 has not had a positive outcome. And to add on to that, not only has there not been a negative outcome over those 20 year rolling time periods, it's not like an equal negative to equal positive. There's only been substantial positive gains over those time periods. So as an investor, that's why we invest we are trading short-term uncertainty for a high degree of probability of success over the long term, and not just a small degree of success.
Speaker 1:But when you take your money and you compound it at 8%, 9%, 10% over five years, 10 years, 20 years, you can really begin to build substantial wealth. Now those numbers were just looking at the S&P 500, just big US companies. If you diversify further, you look at small companies, international companies, emerging markets, real estate, so on and so forth the frequency of those returns actually increases. So that is an important thing to note as a fundamental starting point. And this may sound obvious, but this is just designed to quantify some of this, to give some framework for some of this, because here's what we want to do next In practice. We want to take but it doesn't just stop there, it's not just looking at okay, are you retiring in 10 years? Well, there's 94% probability that your money is going to be increasing in value over that 10-year time period. That's a good starting point, but really what we want to know isn't when are you retiring, it's when will you need these funds and how much of them will you need?
Speaker 1:For example, let's assume that you are 55 years old today and you want to retire at 65. You, for example, let's assume that you are 55 years old today and you want to retire at 65. You might look at those numbers and say, ok, we're still 10 years out. There's still a high probability of success over that 10 year time period 94% for looking at the S&P 500, just based on historical numbers. Probably even higher depending upon the mix of different stocks in your portfolio, or stocks and bonds in your portfolio. So you might look at that and say, ok, 10 years out seems okay, but I'm going to start gradually getting closer and closer to my desired stock to bond allocation by the time that I actually retire. Well, let's also assume that you're retiring at 65, but you have a pension, you have social security and you have a spouse that's going to continue working for the first five years of your retirement. And between those three income sources social security, pension and spouse's earnings you actually don't need to touch your portfolio. Well, in that case, you're 10 years away from your retirement, but you're actually 15 years away from needing funds in your portfolio. So that's a key distinction.
Speaker 1:It's not just when are you retiring and that's going to drive the decision of when should you start making some strategic shifts from stocks to bonds or stocks to other assets. It's not just that, it is actually when do you begin to need these funds from your portfolio? So, in this example, you're retiring in 10 years, but you need funds in 15 years. It's that 15 year mark that I would be more focused on when it comes to what should the strategic shift, the strategic realignment, look like for your specific portfolio. So that's one thing you look at is not just when you retire, but when do you actually need funds from your portfolio. Now, oftentimes those two things coincide with one another, but not always.
Speaker 1:The second part of this isn't just when do you need funds from your portfolio, but how much do you need from your portfolio. So, for example, let's assume that you retire and you know that you're going to need exactly $40,000 per year from your portfolio to supplement your other income sources. So let's assume that with that, you want to make sure that you have 10 years worth of cash and bonds in your portfolio in case the stock market drops a lot. I'm not saying that's my recommendation. Oftentimes, actually, I start with less than that. But just for sake of example, let's assume you say I want 10 years worth of cash and bonds in my portfolio. That's not subject to stock market ups and downs. So if we go through a 10-year time period of really rough returns in the stock market, I still have other assets that I can live on in that case. Well, that comes out to a total of $400,000.
Speaker 1:If you have a $1 million portfolio going into retirement and you want 10 years worth of living expenses in cash or bonds. That's the $400,000. So in this instance, you would end up with a portfolio that's 60% stocks and 40% bonds the 60-40 portfolio. So keep that in mind. In order to meet that objective, you would need a 60-40 portfolio if you started with a million dollars. Now let's assume that you're not starting with a million dollars. Let's assume that you're starting with $4 million, but you still have that same need. You still have that $400,000 need for cash, bonds, other stable assets. Well, in this instance, that $400,000 has stayed fixed, but the portfolio value is now $4 million. So $400,000 in this example now only represents 10% of your overall portfolio, which means you could be more like a 90-10 in this example and still have the same protections the cash and bonds offer In both instances, because your need from your portfolio was the same. The 90-10 portfolio and the 60-40 portfolio provide the same level of protections. The difference was in both the dollar amount and the percentage amount that you had in more growth-oriented assets. So you can start to see the difference here. And, by the way, this is just looking at the financial side of things.
Speaker 1:Another layer that you need to add onto this, which we're gonna talk about in just a second is your comfortability with this type of a portfolio allocation in retirement? I have a lot of clients that have 90% or more of their portfolio in stocks and they're retired and they're fully comfortable with it. I have a lot of other clients that would never be comfortable with that type of an allocation, even if they knew they were secure enough with their overall portfolio to weather the downturn. In that example, just the ups and downs in retirement would not be something that they could sleep with at night, at least not peacefully. So there's the what does your portfolio need side of this. We call this what's your risk capacity in terms of how much could you possibly have in stocks? And then there's more of the emotional side, or the psychological side of even if you could afford to have more in stocks doesn't necessarily mean that's the best portfolio for you. If that's going to cause a lot of discomfort, that's going to cause a lot of anxiety in retirement due to the ups and downs of the market's going to create. So more on that in one second.
Speaker 1:But I actually want to go back to my example that I just used. We just used an example to show how, if your needs from your portfolio are the same in both instances a million dollar portfolio versus a four million dollar portfolio you would have different stock to bond ratios in those to accomplish the same goal. Let's actually go back to that four million dollar portfolio example and, by the way, whether your portfolio is four million, four hundred thousand forty million, the principles here are what I want you to focus on. Don't focus too much on the dollar values. I'm just using these as an example. Focus on the principles. And the principle there is. If you actually look at that $4 million portfolio, and we know that our goal is to generate $40,000 per year and we want 10 years of living expenses and cash and bonds in case the stock market drops. Well, here's another thing that I want you to consider A $4 million portfolio and this, of course, depends upon how you're invested, but let's assume that portfolio is generating a 2% dividend yield.
Speaker 1:That $4 million portfolio is generating $80,000 of cash dividends. Now why do we have cash and bonds? Go back to the very beginning, where I said we don't own those because they're going to grow a whole lot. That's what the stock market does. We own those because they provide some stability. They provide another asset, another resource. Think of it as like the emergency fund for your portfolio, so that when the stock market is down, you don't have to sell your great investments, you can simply pull from your emergency fund, or you can simply pull from your cash and bonds, giving time for stocks to recover. Well, if you have a $4 million portfolio generating a 2% dividend yield, that's $80,000 of cash income that that portfolio is creating for you. If you only need $40,000, you are already creating 200% of your desired income needs on an annual basis. Just some cash dividends from your portfolio.
Speaker 1:Now you may say, well, james, sure, but what happens when the stock market drops? What happens when the stock market drops 30%, 40%, 50%? That can and will happen. However, when it does, history actually shows us that dividends remain pretty resilient. If you look at 2000, 2002, for example, the stock market lost about half of its value. The US stock market that is, dividends only dropped by about 1% to 2%, meaning the company that was paying $1 per share in dividends at the end of that period was paying closer to 98 to 99 cents per share in dividends. So that's incredibly resilient. In 2022, when the stock market dropped 25 plus percent at its peak, dividends that year actually increased.
Speaker 1:So when you're looking at this, keep in mind that dividends the cash dividends companies pay they do not rise and fall with the company's stock value. The stock value is very sporadic. It can be up and down. It can swing wildly. Traditionally, dividends do not move as actively. They remain pretty steady. Now the flip side of this is 2008 to 2009, when dividends did actually go down by about a quarter, but still dividends didn't get wiped out. Dividends didn't drop as much as the stock market did.
Speaker 1:So keep that in mind when you're designing a portfolio, that you can look at the cash dividends coming either from the stock portion of your portfolio or the interest income from the bond portion of your portfolio, and that can help you to determine what allocation to use as well. So that's the first part of the decision. As you're asking yourself, how soon before retiring do I start to make this transition from a majority or even all stock portfolio to the appropriate retirement portfolio, which in many cases is still majority stocks, but it's maybe not all stocks or it's maybe not quite as many stocks as you had in your working years as you do in retirement Not a universal thing, but just on average that tends to be the case. What's the second part of this framework? Well, the second part to tag along to what I was talking about is there are reasons for using bonds. There are reasons for using cash. There's a financial reason and there's a psychological reason. So that financial reason is not because they're going to grow a whole heck of a lot over time. We already established that Stocks, traditionally, are going to grow a lot more than bonds are over time.
Speaker 1:However, bonds provide something that stocks don't, which is stability in the short term. Even with bonds, you need to be very careful because in a year like 2022, if you just owned an aggregate bond index, that aggregate bond index was down double digits. So if you're saying, well, what the heck, my safety money just lost 10, 12 percent, well, realize that not all bonds are created equal. You have government bonds and corporate bonds. You have short-term bonds and long-term bonds. You have junk bonds, you have high quality bonds. There's all these different kinds of bonds and, unlike stocks, where you might say, hey, for my stock market portfolio, I just want to be broadly diversified, I want to own the entire US stock market. That could be a great strategy for a lot of people. However, if your bond strategy is I just want to own the entirety of the bond market, which, by the way, is enormous. But if you just wanted to own the entirety of the bond market, probably a horrible strategy for most people.
Speaker 1:What you really want to do is you want to use bonds for a specific purpose, whether it's liability matching Okay, I need to have a certain amount in bonds that mature at the right time for me to be able to spend that money in my portfolio. Or whether it's for liability matching, which means I need to have a certain number of bonds, certain amount in bonds, and a specific duration or a specific maturity so those can mature and I can spend that money by pulling that money out of my portfolio. Or it's to have something that's non-correlated to the stock market as much as possible. Or for some other reason. Maybe that's income, maybe that's something else, but you need to first define what is the purpose for the bond and then what specific types of bonds should you use. But understand that the goal of bonds, whatever that purpose is, should not be growth. Growth should be coming from the stock portion of your portfolio or other asset portion of your portfolio, not from bonds.
Speaker 1:The financial reason that I like to think of when it comes to bonds is to protect against those downturns. It's to be that emergency fund, so you need to have a stable amount in conservative investments so that you have options of where to take income from when the stock market is down. So if you have a year where the stock market is down and the bond market is up, well you can strategically say I'm not going to touch my stock market investments. Those are great investments and they will recover, but it might be several months or even years. In the meantime, I'm going to take money from my bond portfolio, or vice versa. Maybe the bond market is down and the stock market is up. You're going to take money from the stock portion of your portfolio and not touch the bond portion, or maybe they're both up. The thing, though, is you want to have options. You want to have non-correlated assets. You want to have things that go up and down on different frequencies, so that you have optionality and flexibility when it comes to where you should draw your income from in retirement. So that's the financial reason.
Speaker 1:Now the second reason, the psychological reason, comes under your personal risk tolerance, you may be in a position where you don't need to have any money in the bond market. Let's use an extreme example you have an incredible pension and social security and that covers all of your needs and then some. Well, if you look at your portfolio in retirement, you technically don't need it to create income, because you don't need it. You could afford to be 100% stocks because if there is a 30, 40, 50% downturn you could just not touch it. You have time for that stock market to recover. You have the same investment horizon as someone does in their 20s or 30s, which is a very long time. Now, just because you could afford to do that doesn't mean that's going to sit well with you, doesn't mean that's not going to cause your stomach to tie up in knots when there's a market downturn. So that's where it's important to know yourself. That's where it's important to understand how have you felt in previous downturns?
Speaker 1:I don't want to go too far on the spectrum because just because you feel a certain way, you could take that too far. You could be overly conservative because it helps you feel better, but then it's horrible for your long-term returns and it's horrible for your ability to maintain a comfortable retirement. So it has to be this balance between almost logically, mathematically, what's the best allocation, and emotionally or psychologically, how do you feel about this? There needs to be consideration from both sides and then you need to be able to understand what's the right allocation for you. But going back to my previous point, if stock market volatility is keeping you up at night and all I mean by volatility is both the ups and the downs if that craziness and the uncertainty of short-term returns keeps you up at night, well then, maybe you should have more bonds in your portfolio. Even if they don't fill a financial need, they can still fill a psychological need. They can still help you feel better about your portfolio, if that's going to help you stay invested.
Speaker 1:I will say this if you are going to add more to cash or bonds or stable investments like that, purely for psychological reasons, there's nothing wrong with it. However, before you do so, it is wise to understand what are the long-term implications of that in terms of how much you might be able to spend later on in life, in terms of how much you might have left over as a buffer to pay for things like long-term care needs or things like that. How much might you have left over for your inheritance, for legacy that you want to leave to children, to family, to charity. Some of those things might not be important to you. That's perfectly fine.
Speaker 1:All I'm saying is understand the trade-offs of decisions that you make today, because when you retire it may feel like you're at the finish line. It may feel like, okay, I'm here Now I just need to protect. You might still have 30 plus years ahead of you and the difference between, say, an all stock allocation and an all bond allocation, to use the extremes if you compound that over 30 plus years, the differences are enormous. So make sure you understand the trade-offs because more than likely you're not all one or all the other, you're probably somewhere in between. But make sure you understand what that's going to do to the long-term projections of your portfolio. To make sure you're comfortable with that, because what you'd hate to see is say, okay, you know, I don't actually feel comfortable with the ups and downs, so you get way conservative. Then you wake up one day and realize, oh, my goodness, I don't have nearly as much as I thought I would to continue paying the bills or to leave a legacy for my family and all of a sudden, that discomfort, that psychological pain, is far worse than the psychological pain you would have faced going through some of the ups and downs. So there's no perfect solution here, but make sure that you've considered everything before determining what the right allocation is for you.
Speaker 1:So let's start to wrap this up and just to summarize what we've talked about. We've talked about the frequency of positive returns in the stock market, and we use that as a starting point to frame when might we need to have something that's not in the stock market as we get closer to retirement. We talked about the fact that it's not actually your retirement date that you're looking at. It's the date that you're going to start pulling money from your portfolio that's going to determine when you should start making changes. We then talked about the difference for the financial reason for assets like cash or bonds in your portfolio versus the emotional or psychological reason for that. To tie it all together, here's what I typically have done with clients, typically about 10 years out from retirement, and by retirement, what I should be saying is the time that they'll start taking money from their portfolio.
Speaker 1:That's where I introduce the conversation Of. You know what I'm not saying. We need to start making changes today, but let's at least begin the conversation. Why do I start the conversation 10 years out, even if I'm not going to make changes? I start it because someone might be saying they're gonna retire at 67 and they're 57 today, but that 67 might not be a definite goal and we might look at their projections and say, oh, I thought it was 67, but because I'm doing so well, I'd actually love to retire at 62. Well, because we started that conversation 10 years out, we were able to keep talking about it and when they said, you know, I actually want to really accelerate my retirement, we weren't caught off guard. We could say, okay, now let's really start to accelerate some of this transition from stocks to bonds, depending on what their allocation ultimately was going to be, because we brought it up.
Speaker 1:So I start the conversation 10 years out more or less, but usually it's more like five years. They actually begin making some more substantial changes, and substantial changes as a relative term because, just to use an example, if we're going from a portfolio it's a hundred percent stocks to zero percent bonds, and their retirement portfolio, just to use an arbitrary example, is going to be 90% stocks and 10% bonds. It's not really radical changes that need to be made. It's a little bit here and a little bit there over the course of the next five years, that's going to get them in a perfect position to retire. Now, if they're going from a 100% stock portfolio to a 50% stock portfolio, there are going to be more substantial changes along the way, but typically about five years out from retirement, from the date that they're going to start pulling funds, that's when I start making some actual changes, or recommend some actual changes to say let's start getting you from where you are to where you need to be.
Speaker 1:So, to use another example instead of going from 100% stock portfolio today, then you retire tomorrow and immediately shift to a 60-40 portfolio. If that is the right allocation for you, well, that's probably not the best thing to do. It works out great if the stock market is going higher and higher and higher, and then you happen to retire when the stock market's at peak, because you maximize the upward capture of performance and you immediately switch to what was best for you. But if you wanted to do that in a year like 2022, for example, and the stock market lost 20, 30% of its value, well, now, all of a sudden, because you weren't getting conservative along the way, because you weren't making shifts along the way. It doesn't mean you can't retire, but it maybe pushed your retirement date back by 12 months, 18 months, 24 months, depending on what type of allocation that you had. So that's typically what I'll do.
Speaker 1:10 years out, start having a conversation, start looking at different things, start really narrowing in on is this actually a retirement date and how much will we need from your portfolio at that time? Five years out, that's typically where we're starting to make some strategic shifts. Those strategic shifts don't need to be sales and purchases. You could simply say, okay, we're going to start taking dividends and interest from our portfolio and reinvest that into the more conservative parts of our portfolio so that we're gradually getting to where we need to be. On the flip side, you could say, okay, all new 401k contributions or all new investments are going to start going to more of the conservative investments as we build our way to where we want to go. Or you simply could say you know what, if today we're 100% stocks and we know that we want to be, for example, 80% stocks, 20% bonds in five years? Well, every year do you make a 4% allocation shift to your portfolio. So up to the first year you go 96% stocks, 4% bonds, then 92%, 8%, then 88%, 12%, and what you're doing is you're starting to take chips off the table, little by little. So by the time that you actually need funds from your portfolio, you're in the right allocation for you All.
Speaker 1:That being said, there is no perfect scientific way to do this. The stock market is a big uncertainty. What we're trying to do with this approach is to minimize the probability of unfavorable outcomes. We're trying to minimize the risks, minimize regret. In the way that you approach this. This is one framework. I hope that framework helps, but this is the way that I think makes a lot of sense when we're trying to look at things from the standpoint of what is the role of stocks versus what is the role of bonds and how do we think of both, both from a financial standpoint as well as a psychological standpoint, to come up with the right allocation for us and to begin that shift in the most appropriate timeframe. So I hope that's helpful.
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Speaker 1:Nothing in this podcast should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other financial advice. It is for informational purposes only. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Ready for Retirement podcast. If you want to see how Root Financial can help you implement the techniques I discussed in this podcast, then go to rootfinancialpartnerscom and click start here, where you can schedule a call with one of our advisors. We work with clients all over the country and we love the opportunity to speak with you about your goals and how we might be able to help. And please remember nothing we discuss in this podcast is intended to serve as advice. You should always consult a financial, legal or tax professional who's familiar with your unique circumstances before making any financial decisions.
